Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
